Saturday, November 28, 2009

Time for Thanksgiving...

I try not to be biased, but I had my doubts about hiring Stevie. His placement counselor assured me that he would be a good, reliable busboy. But I had never had a mentally handicapped employee and wasn't sure I wanted one. I wasn't sure how my customers would react. Stevie was short, a little dumpy, with the smooth facial features and thick-tongued speech of Down syndrome. I wasn't worried about most of my trucker customers. Truckers don't generally care who buses tables as long as the food is good and the pies are homemade.
The ones who concerned me were the mouthy college kids traveling to school; the yuppie snobs who secretly polish their silverware with their napkins for fear of catching some dreaded "truckstop germ;" and the pairs of white-shirted business men on expense accounts who think every truckstop waitress wants to be flirted with. I knew those people would be uncomfortable around Stevie, so I closely watched him for the first few weeks.I shouldn't have worried. After the first week, Stevie had my staff wrapped around his stubby little finger. Within a month my truck regulars had adopted him as their official truckstop mascot. After that I really didn't care what the rest of the customers thought.
He was a 21-year-old in blue jeans and Nikes, eager to laugh and eager to please, but fierce in his attention to his duties. Every salt and pepper shaker was exactly in its place, not a bread crumb or coffee spill was visible when Stevie got done with the table. Our only problem was convincing him to wait to clean a table until after the customers were finished. He would hover in the background, shifting his weight from one foot to the other, scanning the dining room until a table was empty. Then he would scurry to the empty table and carefully bus the dishes and glasses onto the cart and meticulously wipe the table with a practiced flourish of his rag. If he thought a customer was watching, his brow would pucker with added concentration. He took pride in doing his job exactly right, and you had to love how hard he tried to please each and every person he met.

Over time, we learned that he lived with his mother, a widow who was disabled after repeated surgeries for cancer. They lived on their Social Security benefits in public housing two miles from the truckstop. Their social worker, who stopped to check on him every so often, admitted they had fallen between the cracks.
Money was tight, and what I paid him was probably the difference between them being able to live together and Stevie being sent to a group home.That's why the restaurant was a gloomy place that morning last August, the first morning in three years that Stevie missed work. He was at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester getting a new valve or something put in his heart. His social worker said that people with Down syndrome often have heart problems at an early age, so this wasn't unexpected. There was a good chance he would come through the surgery in good shape and be back at work in a few months. A ripple of excitement ran through the staff later that morning when word came that he was out of surgery, in recovery and doing fine. Frannie, my head waitress, let out a war whoop and did a little dance the aisle when she heard the good news. Belle Ringer, one of our regular trucker customers, grinned. "Okay, Frannie, what was that all about?" he asked. "We just got word that Stevie is out of surgery and going to be okay,” she responded. “I was wondering where he was," said Belle.
Frannie quickly told him and the other two drivers sitting at his booth about Stevie's surgery, then sighed. "Yeah, I m glad he is going to be okay," she said, "but I don't know how he and his mom are going to handle all the bills. From what I hear, they're barely getting by as it is." Belle Ringer nodded thoughtfully, and Frannie hurried off to wait on the rest of her tables.After the morning rush, Frannie walked into my office. She had a couple of paper napkins in her hand a funny look on her face. "What's up?" I asked. "That table where Belle Ringer and his friends were sitting," she said, "this was folded and tucked under a coffee cup." She handed the napkin to me, and three $20 bills fell onto my desk when I opened it.
On the outside, in big, bold letters, was printed “Something For Stevie.”"Pony Pete also asked me what that dance was all about," she said, "so I told him about Stevie and his mom and everything, and Pete looked at Tony and Tony looked at Pete, and they ended up giving me this." She handed me another paper napkin that had "Something For Stevie" scrawled on its outside. Two $50 bills were tucked within its folds. Frannie looked at me with wet, shiny eyes, shook her head and said simply, "Truckers."That was three months ago. Today is Thanksgiving, the first day Stevie is supposed to be back to work. His placement worker said he's been counting the days until the doctor said he could work, and it didn't matter at all that it was a holiday. He called 10 times in the past week, making sure we knew he was coming, fearful that we had forgotten him or that his job was in jeopardy.
I arranged to have his mother bring him to work. We met them in the parking lot and invited them both to celebrate his day back. Stevie was thinner and paler, but couldn't stop grinning as he pushed through the doors and headed for the back room where his apron and busing cart were waiting. "Hold up there, Stevie, not so fast, "I said. I took him and his mother by their arms. "Work can wait for a minute. To celebrate you coming back, breakfast for you two is on me. I led them toward a large corner booth at the rear of the room. I could feel and hear the rest of the staff following behind as we marched through the dining room.
Glancing over my shoulder, I saw booth after booth of grinning truckers empty and join the procession.We stopped in front of the big table; its surface covered with a mess of coffee cups, saucers and dinner plates, all sitting crooked on dozens of folded paper napkins. "First thing you have to do, Stevie, is clean up this mess," I said, trying to sound stern. Stevie looked at me, and then at his mother, then pulled out one of the napkins. It had "Something for Stevie" printed on the outside. As he picked it up, two $10 bills fell onto the table. Stevie stared at the money, then at dozens of napkins peeking from beneath the tableware, each with his name printed or scrawled on it.
I turned to his mother. "There's over $10,000 in cash and checks on that table, all from truckers and trucking companies that heard about your problems. Happy Thanksgiving!" Well, it got real noisy about that time, with everybody hollering and shouting, and there were a few tears, too. But you know what's funny? While everybody else was busy shaking hands and hugging each other, Stevie, with a big, big smile on his face, was busy clearing all the cups and dishes from the table... best worker I ever hired.
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And all they really need is a feeling of being a part of the society.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Nifty generous to both "Bears & Bulls"..

Managed to close above the falling 5-week avg but below 5-week ema(4953) which is also the high of the day.That was an attempt to close above that ema.
If Oversold "Hang seng" has a relief rally, Nifty may continue its rally towards 5015 to 5035++ and drift lower there after.And if the weakness continues, Nifty too will slide down.
For option traders: Try to write options during extreme conditions in the first half of the series to benefit from both time decay as well as strong shorter term reversals.Do not buy Puts when Nifty is oversold but wait for your opportunity to enable you to hold your positions with lesser risk.

A sharp rebound after a "331" point fall. GOlden ratio 61.82% retracement comes @ 5012 which is "5-Day ema".

Today's low coincided with "Weekly low ema". Unable to close above "Day low ema"

HongKong Index- A major break down.

Nifty Intra Update.

The last support for a bounce is closer to the weekly Low ema..(4820-4825)
If it is a combination of "abc-x-abc", it may bounce well. If it is a 5 wave structure, it may fall again after a brief bounce.


Nifty PreMarket View.

The simple analysis has been that the fall of "5182 to 4539" retraced the earlier rise from 4577 to 5182 in quicker time signalling a reversal. As the fall was continuous without a pause or consolidation, the retracement rally was swift and it could not retrace that fall in quicker time. The move from 4539 to 5138 was in a clear "abc" pattern and the sharp reversal, expecially on the settlement day, indicates a reversal to the down move. Technicals support such a view and the global cues too.

I would look for 4838(50%) or 4860 an earlier pivot to hold for any bullish view. Looking at the way the world mkts were stretched making all the bears into bulls and then falling suddenly, especially when the $ was hitting new low, is a smart way to lull all the bulls into watching the $ moves & then dump it all in a swift way.

Our markets too suggested similarly with two days of "intra day falls" but closing firm, thereby keeping the Technicals intact(As all the TA is based on close prices) and then sliding down upto 5060 quietly & then a sharp fall yesterday.

Downside target: If 4838-4860 does not hold, then A = C would be 4495(5138 - (5182-4539=643))

Nowadays, the divergences do not result in immediate price reversals. They test your "Patience" with multiple divergences and then fall. But fall they ultimately do.

I am still of the view that after this correction which might last 10-15 days and if 4400-4500 can hold, Nifty should start on its last upmove to 5400-5500 or more. I see "the whole of trading post election results as one big consolidation". Being a big consolidation, it provides huge trading opportunities if one could identify the "reversals within" in quicker time.

"I might not be available for the first session". Wish you a safe trading.


Thursday, November 26, 2009

Nifty seeking 4900++ again..!


Firstly a "Big Thank you" to Hemanta for contributing for the benefit of many.
And I appreciate everyone's participation here..quite enriching..
Technical set up is fast changing requiring a decisive weekly close.



A clear break in the Hourly channel @ 5050 today.

The importance of these numbers & their positioning can never be underestimated..

Nifty breaks the channel &TA turns down


Nifty update.

At 1.10PM: Above 5087, it is a break out for short term.
Turns out to be another false break out.
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At 11.30AM: A false break out..Holding morning low of 5079, if it can move past 5098, a break out is possible.
Weak Asia is a dampener.


On the verge of a "Break-out"..??

Nifty Pre Market View.

"5040" is the channel support.
Below which a deeper correction possibility..


Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Nifty on its final surge..??

Intra day weakness & a firm close was witnessed in the last two days. A close below the 5 DMA or the previous day's low would warn of a short term reversal. The following is another possible scenario, provided 4933 holds.


Nifty Intra Update

At 2.03PM: Hourly momentum has weakened..(Closed below HH ema)
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At 12.30PM: Minor negative divergences visible in intra charts.
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As "ORB" has given a "BUY" since opening, Conservative long remains.
One can book out(Optional) at 5145.

Nifty PreMarket View

A most likely a range trading day within the Resistances & Supports & Pivots mentioned.
Trade those points for the day.
Asia is muted & coming off their highs as of now.
Below 5053, >5045 & 5025.
Above 5115, > 5125 & 5145.


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Nifty's intra weakness & firm close..

Nifty trending up in the channel, keeping above 5DMA with intra day corrections.. A daily close below 5063 would be a first weakness. Channel supports come around 5022(Weekly Pivot).

Intra weakness was noticed at the 10.00AM itself and Nifty moved towards 5 ema @ 5051 and bounced off it, retracing most of the fall & then fell towards the end, keeping the "Hourly momentum" down & Daily momentum escaping with average close calculations..

Nifty Intraday update

At 3.27PM: Weakness crept into Daily too. Exit/ part book out of Longs.



At 10.35: First hour close is weak. I will try & update this each hour today..Below 5093(Day's Pivot), Nifty will be weak towards 5050-5040.

Nifty PreMarket View.

Trading range narrowed down during last week and the break out looks muted with limited upsides. Unless "5182" is not surpassed quickly, Nifty may drift lower after spending a range bound moves in 5050-5150 range..So trade light.
What has been labelled as "abc" (Red), will change to "1,2,3.i" in case 5182 is taken out.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Nifty's fast rising Pivot is @ 5093 ?!


Nifty PreMarket view

In the very short term, Nifty has turned "UP". "5035" is a crucial support for the day. As of now, the view is that the upsides are limited...
It is an uncertain zone...there are many possibilities running with different time cycles. Trade light. In the very short term, both longs & shorts need to be quick to take their profits until some clarity emerges.
My preferred view is - Nifty is correcting the fall from 5182-4539 and it can come all the way upto 5150++ or fall right away as in 2nd wave OR can clear 5182++ also as in an irregular "b" wave, etc...