"The 99 Club"...are you in it..??

I know of people who play the markets quite calmly after some meticulous preparation and planning and execute them for their predetermined profits and go home the moment their objectives are met. One of those steady characters stayed back in the market after his target profits achieved and lent his ears to the loose talk and ended up listening and getting hooked on to the excited voices of the "Never stopping Mouths-No Brains" and lost his brains too. From then on, he couldn't stop at his winnings and wanted more...& more...& more and he lost his piece of mind & happiness. He is still winning but he is now running along with the rest of the rats...
Welcome to " the 99 Club" baby..!!!

Once upon a time, there lived a King who, despite his luxurious lifestyle, was neither happy nor content.One day, the King came upon a servant who was singing happily while he worked. This fascinated the King; why was he, the Supreme Ruler of the Land, unhappy and gloomy, while a lowly servant had so much joy. The King asked the servant, 'Why are you so happy?'
The man replied, 'Your Majesty, I am nothing but a servant, but my family and I don't need too much - just a roof over our heads and warm food to fill our tummies.'
The king was not satisfied with that reply. Later in the day, he sought the advice of his most trusted advisor. After hearing the King's woes and the servant's' story, the advisor said, 'Your Majesty, I believe that the servant has not been made part of The 99 Club.'
'The 99 Club? And what exactly is that?' the King inquired. The advisor replied, 'Your Majesty, to truly know what The 99 Club is, place 99 Gold coins in a bag and leave it at this servant's doorstep.'
When the servant saw the bag, he took it into his house. When he opened the bag, he let out a great shout of joy... So many gold coins! He began to count them. After several counts, he was at last convinced that there were 99 coins. He wondered, 'What could've happened to that last gold coin? Surely, no one would leave 99 coins!' He looked everywhere he could, but that final coin was elusive. Finally, exhausted he decided that he was going to have to work harder than ever to earn that gold coin and complete his collection.
From that day, the servant's life was changed. He was overworked, horribly grumpy, and castigated his family for not helping him make that 100th gold coin. He stopped singing while he worked.
Witnessing this drastic transformation, the King was puzzled. When he sought his advisor's help, the advisor said, 'Your Majesty, the servant has now officially joined The 99 Club.'
He continued, 'The 99 Club is a name given to those people who have enough To be happy but are never contented, because they're always yearning and Striving for that extra 1 saying to themselves: 'Let me get that one final thing and then I will be happy for life.'
We can be happy, even with very little in our lives, but the minute we're given something bigger and better, we want even more! We lose our sleep, our happiness, we hurt the people around us; all these as a price for our growing needs and desires.
That's "the CLUB 99".

Nifty slide continues with "OS" in short term..

Nifty was resisted in the opening near 2725 and fell steadily, though hourly oscillators continue to show positive divergences, unconfirmed by price reversal.
With today's fall, I expected to see a higher VIX. However, I was amazed to see a lowest reading since the 2250 bottom. It cannot be compared on a micro level. But what does it say..breaking a trendline that way..A likely reversal or an aberration in the reading..
Price being supreme, it confirmed a 2 day swing reversal downward when it breached the 2755 on wednesday and since then there is a steady decline. This week closing below last week's low of 2701 and 5 week low ema presents a bearish scenario.Only a Tuesday close above 2731 will change the short term trend.
Prices studied as EW suggests a fall towards 2525..Tuesday's price should unfold that ...A Fall below 2610-2625 may lead to 2525 and a rise above 2725 may lead to a short term reversal. Status of world mkts as of Tuesday's morning should guide us..

Nifty is stuck around 2700 with VIX rising & TA weakening..

Nifty resisted at the critical 2745 level in the opening Gap up and generally trended down with minor rallies. Extreme short term continues to be oversold.
Trend in weekly, daily are firmly down.
In case of any continuation of rally in world markets, Nifty may break past 2730 to 2745/2768... Technically, it is poised for more downsides.
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India VIX - Volatility Index:-
The chart below shows the Nifty Volatility Index. It is to be read like an Oscillator with a range of 0 - 100. Unlike the other TA indicators, the interpretation is exactly opposite. More volatility happens in bear phase and less volatility in bull phase.The highest reading of 92.53 was followed by Nifty's bottom at 2503.The lowest reading of 32.71 on 7th January followed the top at 3147.
Some trendlines can be drawn and TA analysis with indicators can be developed. It is just an assisting tool.
There was very high volatality today but closing is not conclusive as Bears are not comfortable..??.

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Nifty breaks 2700, pauses..

Nifty breaks the critical 2700 level after getting resisted at 2780 during opening bounce and closed just about there. Tomorrows' opening will confirm further downside or one more day of range trading as extreme short term is oversold. There is no big change in volumes..may be because of rotational selling.
Trend in weekly, daily are firmly down.
In case of any rally in world markets, Nifty may rally upto 2760/2780... Technically, it is poised for more downsides.
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India VIX - Volatility Index:-
The chart below shows the Nifty Volatility Index. It is to be read like an Oscillator with a range of 0 - 100. Unlike the other TA indicators, the interpretation is exactly opposite. More volatility happens in bear phase and less volatility in bull phase.The highest reading of 92.53 was followed by Nifty's bottom at 2503.The lowest reading of 32.71 on 7th January followed the top at 3147.
Some trendlines can be drawn and TA analysis with indicators can be developed. It is just an assisting tool. Inspite of a sharp fall, VIX has not decisively broken the trendline. Lets see how it behaves tomorrow.
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Nifty's 5th wave down likely to be confirmed..

With world markets deeply down, Our mkts too fall in line with others.
For the likely targets:-
5.1 = 3147 - 2701 = 446 points
5.2 = 2701 - 2868 = 38% retracement
5.3.1 = 2868 - 2758 = 110 points
5.3.2 = 2758 - 2808 = 50% retracement
5.3.3 = 2808 - 1.38 times = 2656
5.3.3 = 2808 - 1.5 times = 2643
5.3.3 = 2808 - 1.6182 times = 2630

So 2656 - 2643 - 2630 are the likely targets for this "5.3.3".
Subsequent to this , there is 5.3.4 up and then 5.3.5 which will complete the "3rd" wave of this 5 th down by Friday and then a "5.4th up" till Tue/Wed and to the " 5th of the 5th" into the settlement and next Friday(30th Jan) or Monday(2nd Feb).

A lot would depend on the severity of this 5.3.3 and a rally for the same..

You can start to take deliveries around our settlement time and into the next month series..However, this needs to be confirmed whether this 5th down will play out as per our road map.. We will keep an update on this..

An alternative:-
If 2755-2700 level holds, a likely bounce if goes past 2808, it becomes a bit complex. Then, trade as per technicals "OB' & "OS" levels till a clarity emerges..

As per Vivek Patil's weekly analysis, we might stop below 2700, not far down around 2650(end of "f" leg), and then rally higher up(as "g" up of a complex "X" wave) as the last leg of a complex "Bow-Tie Diametric" and then fall into a third corrective..


In either case , allow this 3rd wave of the 5th down ("c" wave of "abc" of "f" leg)to be fully played out and close shorts there and initiate some longs..Will update on this after the coming days action..

Nifty bounces off from Friday gap, looking to west for direction..

Nifty found its support just above the Friday's Gap at 2755. It nearly retraced a 50% of the fall from yesterday's high 2868(Last week high too) to todays low of 2758.
So for any short term move up, 2755-2758 should hold. Sell below this and sell strongly below 2700.
Daily close above 2850 will bring a short term momentum up.
The range presently is 2755 to 2870...Trade well.

Nifty sold off at the last hour with near ranges being 2800 - 2880.

Nifty's counter trend rally continues with minor intra day corrections.
With US Mkts closed for two days, the trading range is expected to be 2780/2800 to 2860/2880 unless US futures become active to "Obama's speech".

The action, thus far, resembles a counter rally to the fall from 3147 to 2701.

Overbought hourly started to correct at the last hour and might find supports at 2820/2800/2780. Trade light.

A very good article in ET about Smart Money, posted in VFM by CDMoorthy worth a read and it is an improved version of the Volatality index.
Presently the 20DMA(2928) is above the 50 DMA(2872) but it has turned down and falling towards the 50 DMA. 3,077.50, 3039.3, 2968.65, 2916.85 & 2857.25 - these are the closing levels to look for in the coming 5 days.If closes above these levels, 20 DMA may turn up, giving bullish momentum. Mon-Wed levels will not come as US mkts are closed for 2 days, so no decisive action till wed unless US futures gets active.

So watch out for Thursday closing above 2917 and Fridays closing above 2858.

Strategy:- Keeping the weekly sell signal in place, aggressive traders may short around 2880 to 2920 area with a SL of 2950. Also buy 2800 PE & 2700 PE when Nifty trades at 2850 & above.
As of now, we are trading at the lower band of the Jan. series..2701 - 3147 and just about done a 38% retracement(2870).Then there is the 50% retracement at 2924. So build a short positions with some hedging which could be squared off once a decisive move below a two day low happens (whenever that may be).

We should also watch US mkts for any sign of decisiveness as S&P500 also bouncing after a steep fall like Nifty.